El cactus Mammillaria hernandezii. Imagen: Carlos Martorell.


The article of Carolina Ureta and cols in Perspectives in Plant Ecology, Evolution and Systematics has been highlighted at MNCN’s blog and CSIC’s service for scientific news SINC. This article proposes a new method to account for uncertainty in the projections of population growth based on ensemble forecasting. Its application to populations two Mexican species of Mammillaria cacti that have been followed by Carlos Martorell for several years shows that, for some species, the synergic effects of climatic change and human disturbance will cause the extinction of populations that would survive if they were only subject to climate change.